I recently had the pleasure to attend a presentation of current market statistics by Michael Orr. He is a local authority on Scottsdale home trends. He is the founder & publisher of the Cromford Report and Director of the Center for Real Estate Theory & Practice at Arizona State University W.P. Carey School of Business. His analysis of the current market in Scottsdale was:
Foreclosures are drying Up in Maricopa County (this includes Phoenix and Scottsdale)
During 2009 there were 475 – 500 Foreclosure Notices being delivered per quarter.
During 2010 there were 275 – 300 Foreclosure Notices being delivered per quarter.
Now – 120 – 150 Foreclosure Notices are being delivered per quarter.
He predicts that in 2013, Foreclosures will not be a significant part of the market!
He also pointed out that 80% of Short Sales are currently under contract. This makes the amount of available distressed properties – Scottsdale foreclosures and short sales very low.
Historical appreciation in Arizona has been approximately 5% per year.
Between February 2012 vs. February 2011 we saw over 8% appreciation.
Between March 2012 vs. March 2011 we saw over 10% appreciation.
He anticipates that between September 2012 and. September 2011 we will see over 25% appreciation, due to inventory shortage.
In general terms, “Prices are 6% higher than 29 days ago. It is not uncommon in desirable areas to see 1% increase per week”
2012 Predictions by Michael Orr:
1) Phoenix area does not behave like the national market.
2) Supply shortage is getting worse.
3) Distressed properties are getting more scarce.
4) Lenders will ease loan underwriting.
5) Builders are re-entering the market.
6) Pricing will get very interesting! Instead of crazy drops in pricing, we’ll see crazy increases.
The Scottsdale real estate market is changing very fast! Call me to discuss the recent changes at (602) 791-0536. If you are sitting on the fence about buying a Scottsdale home, now is the time to take action.
Carmen Brodeur JD
Trillium Properties, LLC
9825 E Bell Road, Suite 120, Scottsdale AZ 85260